讲座名称：“人口与社会政策大讲堂”第三十八期
讲座内容：一个研讨座谈会、两个学术讲座报告
讲座时间：2018年3月30日星期五下午2：00-6：00
（一）研讨座谈会
座谈题目：Think Tank Capacity Building: Practices and
Experiences
座谈时间：2018年3月30日星期五下午2：00-3：45
座谈地点：公管学院实验中心三楼研讨室
座谈嘉宾：Salvatore Babones、Bing Xu & Eric Fong
座谈对象：西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院教师，金禾经济研究中心教师
座谈嘉宾简介：
Salvatore Babones is an associate professor of
sociology at the University of Sydney. He also writes extensively on China
issues for Foreign Affairs and other
major US policy outlets. His latest book, American
Tianxia: Chinese Money, American Power, and the End of History, uses
classical Confucian governance concepts to interpret the structure of the
twenty-first century world-system.
Bing Xu received a BA and a PhD
in Economics from University of Georgia. She is currently an associate
professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. Her research use
both empirical and theoretical methods to analyze policy effects. Her work have
appeared in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Economic Letters,
and International Journal of Game Theory, among others.
座谈内容简介：
1、Introduction of Think Tank
(1) The experience about
working with think tanks in the US and Europe will be introduced by Salvatore Babones.
(2) The Think Tank at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics will be
introduced by Bing Xu.
(3) The Think Tank at The Chinese University of Hong Kong will be introduced
by Eric Fong.
(4) The Think Tank of The Institute for Population and Development Studies at
Xi’an Jiaotong University will be introduced by Shuzhuo Li.
(5) The Think Tank of Jinhe Center for Economic Research at Xi’an Jiaotong
University will be introduced by Weihong Zeng.
2、Dialogue and Discourse.
3、Ways Forward: Further Collaborations.
（二）学术讲座报告
讲座题目：Competitive
Environment, Child-raising Cost and Fertility in China
讲座时间：2018年3月30日星期五下午4：00－5：00
讲座地点：公管学院实验中心三楼学术厅
讲座嘉宾：许冰
讲座内容简介：
Children
in many ultra-low fertility countries, particularly those in East Asia, grow up
in a highly competitive
world where they fiercely compete with one another for their chance at a
“successful life,”
be it an entry into the best universities or getting hired at top companies. In
such environment,
parents have an incentive to provide more resource to their children than their peers so that their children
have an “edge” in the competition. However, this gives other parents incentive to raise their own
spending, which in turn may induce the first parents to further increase their spending. This
raises the question whether such strategic complementarity will force parents to ratchet up
their spending to the point where they exhaust their resources on child-raising. The question is
important since relaxing parents’ budget constraint under such scenario, for example, through
increasing income or subsidizing education, will only lead to parents exhausting their (now
higher) budget on their existing children and not to higher fertility.
（三）学术讲座报告
讲座题目：Population Trends and International Relations: The
Demography of Power
讲座时间：2018年3月30日星期五下午5：00－6：00
讲座地点：公管学院实验中心三楼学术厅
讲座嘉宾：Salvatore Babones
讲座内容简介：
International relations scholars routinely ignore
demographics, perhaps because the days when countries promoted large families
to increase national power are long in the past. But viewed over a time scale
of decades, demography still does matter for national power. For example,
China's economic rise to middle income status only makes China a peer
competitor to the United States because of China's large population. Projections of future Chinese power are based
on three problematic demographic assumptions: first, that China's official
fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman is in fact the true figure; second,
that China's fertility rate will soon rise to replacement levels (and stay
there); and third, that China's sex ratio at birth will rapidly fall back to
normal levels. Of these three assumptions, the first is almost certainly wrong,
the second is dubious, and the third is difficult to predict. But together
these factors will determine not only the future size of the Chinese economy,
but the demands imposed by population ageing on China's future government
budgets. Policymakers who want to understand China's future standing in the
world relative to the United States -- or Russia's relative to its neighbors,
or Africa's relative to Europe -- might learn more from talking to demographers
than from talking to international relations scholars.